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| Scouting Reports |
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| The Bear |
| Never quit. It is the easiest cop-out in the world. Set a goal and don't quit until you attain it. When you do attain it, set another goal, and don't quit until you reach it. Never quit. |
Bud |
| Football, in its purest form, remains a physical fight. As in any fight, if you don't want to fight, it's impossible to win. |
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| Texas A & M you've got to be kidding me! |
| Friday, March 07, 2008 |
Can't help but feel a little disgusted and betrayed by this story, especially after we named Reveille one of the top 10 mascots ever.
Aggies, don't get cute. Reveille is, was, and always should be a Collie. Reveille is one of the greatest traditions in the history of college sports. Please don't ruin it. |
posted by Walter @ 2:00 PM   |
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| The Next Big Thing............ |
| Thursday, March 06, 2008 |
Darren McFadden, Matt Ryan, Glen Dorsey....that's the past. Who's the future? Who's the next big thing? You got questions, I got answers.
Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan
Already a 323 favorite, this kid is about to explode onto the national scene. Playing in a conference where quarterbacks rule (the MAC), LeFevour has been by far the best player at the position for the past two seasons (including his true freshman year). Though not blessed with the same arsenal of next level skills as former, and more well known, MAC passers Ben Roethlisberger or Byron Leftwich, LeFevour is every bit as dynamic as those two and will certainly hear his name called by someone on draft day 2010. LeFevour certainly has the mind boggling numbers. In his Freshman and Sophomore seasons, LeFevour has over 6,600 passing yards, over 1,600 rushing yards, and 79 total TD(!!!). This includes his monstrous Sophomore campaign where he came 1 rushing TD shy of joining Tim Tebow as the only 20 passing TD/20 rushing TD players in NCAA history. Oh, and if you think he can't compete with the big boys, think again. In their bowl game against Purdue, LeFevour torched the Boilermakers to the tune of 292 passing yards and 4 TD (with 0 INT by the way), to go along with his 114 rushing yards and 2 more TD. With Georgia, Purdue, and Indiana all on the schedule in 2008, LeFevour will have many chances to make a name for himself. Here's betting he'll do just that and more, perhaps pushing Tebow to become the first ever 30/30 man!
Josh Adams RB Wake Forest A year younger than LeFevour, Adams is another kid who is ready for huge things. That said, unlike LeFevour Adams doesn't necessarily have the monstrous numbers to place him anywhere near the national radar…..so I think you're just going to have to trust me on this one. Adams' Freshman numbers were solid enough, 953 rushing yards, 4.4 average, 11 TD, but they don't necessarily do this kid's tremendous talent justice. At 6'0 and 180 lbs. Adams isn't a true between the tackles runner. But before you decry his lack of toughness, consider that inside running is not really what Wake Forest does. Jim Grobe's innovative spread attack is predicated almost entirely on attacking the edges of the defense, off tackle. A slippery back with uncanny vision like Adams was practically built to play that style of football. After a rocky start to the 2007 season, Adams really picked up his game for the second half. In Wake's final eight games, Adams ripped off a total of 730 yards and 9 TD. Expect more of the same from this home run hitter, only this time over the course of an entire season. 1,500 yards and 15 TD is not out of the question as Wake looks to find its new offensive focal point with the departure of all everything WR Kenneth Moore. They won't have to look very hard.
Tom Brandstater QB Fresno State Playing in the WAC it is understandable that Mr. Brandstater flew totally under the radar last year. With Fresno a bit down, it was easy for him to be overshadowed by bigger WAC stars like Colt Brennan and Ian Johnson. Well, expect a reversal of fortunes for the senior in 2008. At 6'5'' and 220 lbs., and possessing a strong arm, Brandstater is the best Fresno QB since David Carr. More importantly, though, is the fact that also like Carr Brandstater has shown marked improvement in his years under Pat Hill. While his numbers weren't exactly gaudy in 2007, his 2,600 passing yards and 15:5 TD ratio were dramatically better than his 1,500 yards and 13:14 ratio in 2006. If we look even deeper, we will see that Brandstater actually improved as the season went along, doing his best work at the end of the year. In his last five games Brandstater put up 1,143 yards and 8 TD versus only 1 INT. He also had his two best performances of the year in that span against BCS teams Kansas State and Georgia Tech, proving that Brandsater can play with the big boys. With Fresno losing one of its top offensive weapons in TB Clifton Smith, expect the Bulldogs to lean on the talented Brandstater and the passing game which also returns its top three receivers. While Brandstater isn't going to go number 1 overall like Carr, in a weak year for senior quarterbacks Brandstater could rise to the top with a strong senior campaign. With Fresno opening the year with three BCS opponents (@ UCLA, @ Kansas State, Wisconsin), expect Brandstater to come out firing and make a name for himself immediately.
Aaron Kelly WR Clemson
Like I wasn't about to give a shout out to my boy Cullen Harper's main man! It's not entirely clear to me why Kelly is still flying way under the radar. At 6'5'' and only 180 lbs., Kelly looks more like a high school basketball player than a division one wideout (to call him lanky would be an understatement), but he sure does play the part well. In fact, Kelly was the number one reason Cullen Harper turned in the season that he did, hauling in 88 balls for 1,081 yards and 11 scores. What is even more impressive, are the numbers that Kelly put up against some of the stiffer defenses the Tigers faced. Against VTech, and their stable of future NFL defensive backs, Kelly ran roughshod to the tune of 11 grabs for 174 yards and a score. Kelly similarly torched BCS powers Florida State (5 for 98, 1 TD), Wake Forest (10 for 93, 2 TD), and South Carolina (9 for 134). With nearly the entire offense returning in 2008, and teams gearing up to stop the two headed running back monster (all American candidates James Davis and CJ Spiller), look for Harper to Kelly to become a national refrain.
Jermaine Gresham TE Oklahoma
OK now we're busting out the big guns. Lost in the modern age where speed and 40 times are all scouts look for, are player like Gresham. Big, strong, nasty, throwback football players like Gresham. Gresham is a TE, but you'd never guess it if you compare him to some of the other so-called "elite" at the position. Gresham, only a rising junior, stands a chiseled, 6'5'' 265 lbs. Stamding next to his more heralded counterparts like Wisconsin's Travis Beckum (6'4'', 220 lbs.) and Missourri's Chase Coffman (6'4'', 240 lbs.), a passerby would think Gresham was a offensive tackle. Well, truth be told, he actually blocks like one, something Coffman and particularly Beckum seem practically allergic to. But don't think Gresham is a one trick pony. While he may not blaze the 40 like Beckum and Coffman, the man knows how to catch the football as evidenced by his 38 catches for 518 receiving yards will attest to. Gresham is particularly effective in the red zone, where he uses his size and strength to impose his will. Of Gresham's 38 catches in 2007, a whopping 11 went for scores. For those scoring at home that is only two less than Coffman and Beckum had COMBINED! Despite Sam Bradford's return in 2008, the loss of Jr. wideout Malcolm Kelly will leave the Sooners offense a lot of yards to make up. Expect Coach Bob Stoops to lean heavily on Gresham as a blocker and receiver to make up those numbers. With Juaquin Iglesias stretching the field, Gresham should easily be able to surpass 50 catches in 2008……that is when he isn't putting some poor defensive end on his back.
The Boston College Linebacking Corpse The talk all offseason will be how BC will cope with the loss of star QB Matt Ryan. While not to minimize the loss of Ryan, the transition to whatever QB Coach Jags chooses will be made a lot easier by the potentially devastating defense the Eagles will be able to put on the field in 2008. By my count, the Eagles have a grand total of five potential all conference linebackers on defense, and that doesn't even take into account leading sacker Alex Albright (DE), and potential NFL draft picks BJ Raji (DT) and Ron Brace (DT). In fact, with those three occupying blockers, the Eagle's stable of thoroughbred linebackers may be free to roam the sidelines. OK, so who, exactly, am I talking about? Well, most people think it begins and ends with Brian Toal. Not true. While Toal is an exciting talent, and will be a hugely stabilizing force in the middle if healthy, he is not the end all of the defense. Coach Jags has assembled a wonderful mix of speedy athletes and muscular thumpers in his linebacking corpse. First the athletes. Anyone who reads the323 knows that I have absolutely love the OLB tandem of Mark Herzlich and Kevin Akins, both rising Juniors. Herzlich is not the fastest guy on the field, but he is a 6'4'', 230 lbs. hybrid backer who always seems to make big plays. Akins, on the other hand, usually is one of the fastest guys on the field. You may remember seeing him return kicks for the Eagles (that's right, a LB returning kicks), or you may remember watching him dominate the Miami Hurricanes offensive line to the tune of 3 sacks in the fourth quarter of their '07 matchup. Neither Herzlich or Akins are really an every down linebacker right now, but that is OK because……the Eagles have two classic "thumpers" to trot out there on obvious running downs. Aside from Toal, Mike McLaughlin (6' 250) and Robert Francois (6'2'' 240) are two of the baddest guys you'll find. Both are adept at taking on blocks and plugging holes, and they are two of the hardest hitters on the team. With the kind of talent and size the Eagles have up front, teams are going to have little to no success running the ball in 2008. The true test will be Nov. 1 when Clemson comes to town. By then the Eagles may be putting up historically good numbers against the run. My guess is they keep it going.
The Colorado Buffaloes OK, so my South Carolina pick from last year didn't turn out so great. BUT, I deserve another shot seeing as the Gamecocks rose all the way to the top 10 (making me look like a genius) before injuries decimated their season (making me look like a fool). Inasmuch, I give you the 2008 Colorado Buffaloes as the "Next Big Team." Why do you ask? Well, they've got everything you look for in a sleeper team: (1) a manageable schedule, (2) a great coach, and (3) returning talent. Lets take them one at a time.
(1) The Schedule – Look, the Big 12 is never easy. But Colorado is in the Big 12 North, and the 2008 schedule shakes out very nicely for them. The trip to Missourri will be a bear, but the only other conference road games are at Kansas (due for a letdown after a magical 2007), and at Texas A & M and Nebraska (both rebuilding under new coaches). True the cross country trip to play Florida State in Jacksonville will be difficult, but this ain't exactly your father's FSU. Missing Oklahoma is huge for the Buffs, as is getting Texas in Boulder on homecoming weekend. If Colorado slips past FSU in the third game, they should enter the Texas game at 4-0 and have Folsom Field simply rocking.
(2) The Coach – I know Dan Hawkins had a rough first year in Boulder, but you simply cannot ignore what he did in 2007. Colorado won six games, including wins over #3 Oklahoma, Nebraska, and at Texas Tech. Moreover, of their 7 losses, 6 were against teams that were ranked for much of the season (Arizona State, Florida State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri). The Buffs improved greatly under Hawkins, and their record could have been even better if for just a bit of luck in the scheduling department.
(3) Returning Talent – It is everywhere in Boulder. QB Cody Hawkins (yep, the coach's son) had an up and down year, but showed marked improvement at the end of the year. His 17 interceptions need work, but his 3000+ yards and 22 TD look very nice. He is young, but is smart (I said he was a coach's son) and should be one the best returning signal callers in the Big 12. Hawkins also has the good fortune of having his top two receivers, Scotty McKnight and Josh Smith, back. Both players were dynamic as true Freshman and should fare much better with extra seasoning. The Buffs did lose leading rusher Hugh Charles, but I don't think you are going to hear to many cries of sorrow. Enter Darrell Scott, #1 running back recruit in the nation. There is a reason he wanted to come to Boulder. Namely, great offensive lines, and playing time right away. Now am I saying this kid is going to be Adrian Peterson? No, but he is damn good and is a mortal lock for 1,000 yards and 10 TD as a true freshman. On defense, losing all world linebacker Jordan Dizon hurts, but the Buffs return more than enough talent to compete. Safety Daniel Dykes joins linebackers Jeff Smart, and Brad Jones, to form a solid nucleus, with leading sacker George Hypolite teaming with Brandon Nicholas to form one of the best interior pass rushing tandems in the nation.
The bottom line is this Buffaloes team is loaded for 2009 and beyond. With a manageable schedule in 2008, Christmas may come early in Colorado. |
| posted by Walter @ 10:36 PM |
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| Combine Note |
| Tuesday, February 26, 2008 |
There are all sorts of things we could talk about regarding the combine. I am simply going to name the one that blew me away the most:
Darren McFadden outran DeSean Jackson.
That is absolutely startling. Jackson put up a nice 40 time, but he probably needed to burn. McFadden put up a ridiculous time.
We'll get to more analysis later. But we learned that McFadden is a startling physical specimen, and has the numbers to back it up.
Jackson, on the other hand, may be a huge gamble on the next level. I mean, he's smaller than I am, and while very fast, probably a little slower than most had expected. |
| posted by Frazier @ 6:09 PM |
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| Foresight is always 20-20? (Part III) |
| Friday, February 22, 2008 |
11. Buffalo Bills
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Malcolm Kelly
Again, it’s not hard to see why the Bills would be interested in Kelly. Trent Edwards was a nice surprise in 2007, and he’s a big downfield pocket passer who needs reliable targets on both sides to be effective. The Bills believe 2007 was an anomaly for deep threat Lee Evans, so Kelly, at 6’4’’ and nearly 230 lbs., would seem to be the perfect compliment. Or does he? I have been a staunch Malcolm Kelly supporter, but even I think he’s being a bit overrated heading into the draft. Kelly has all the physical tools you look for, but he also has the knack for disappearing for long stretches during important games. Anyone who watched Oklahoma football this past season saw that the offense ran smoothest when Bradford was able to distribute the ball to all his weapons (Kelly, Iglesias, and Gresham). Despite his size and speed (honestly, Kelly should have been a man among boys in the Big 12) Kelly inexplicably was unable to take over games. Look, do I think Malcolm Kelly could turn into a big time NFL receiver? I sure do. But, he has not come close t showing the consistency or work ethic to warrant the number 11 overall selection….of course that will all change if he blazes a sub 4.5 forty time.
The pick will actually be…….Aqib Talib
This is just a gut feeling. Really, after Mike Jenkins all the other defensive backs are lumped together. Some teams will prefer McKelvin, others Talib, and still others Cromartie. My gut tells me that the CB desperate Bills will fall in love with one of those guys, and that guy will be Talib. Frankly, it’s the right choice. McKelvin and Cromartie may someday be good players, but they are still very raw and have a lot of development ahead of them. Talib, on the other hand, is a polished corner who already plays an NFL style game. More importantly, though, and the thing that the Bills will lust for, is that Talib has the uncanny ability to get his hands on the football and make big plays when he does. Defensive backs who bat down passes are a dime a dozen. The true value lies in the guys who are ballhawks. NFL quarterbacks don’t make many mistakes, so you need to have guys in your defensive backfield who can capitalize when they do. Unlike any other corner in the draft, Talib has the ability to channel his inner Ty Law and come up with the big play, as evidenced by his numerous interceptions and touchdowns at Kansas. I’m telling you, some team is going to sit down and watch film on this kid and just fall in love. Buffalo will be happy if its them.
12. Denver Broncos
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Ryan Clady
Ryan Clady will be LONG gone by the time the Broncos draft, but really you could put any tackle’s name in. The Broncos’ offensive line has gotten old in a hurry, and to keep up their tradition of dominant running games they are going to need to reload. That said, unless the nimble footed Clady falls all the way to 12 (unlikely), I don’t see any lineman being available that fits into what the Broncos try to do on offense. As we all know, the Broncos’ zone blocking scheme prefers lighter, quicker lineman, especially on the interior. Their entire running game is predicated on their lineman having the athletic ability to get to the 2nd level and get a “hat on a hat” with the opposing linebackers. While Clady is athletic enough to fit that bill, Sam Baker, Chris Williams, and Jeff Otah (the tackles likely to be available in this spot) are simply too upright and plodding to execute that scheme. It’s an interesting dilemma because if Denver were to draft based solely on need, they could reach for Virginia guard Brandon Albert who’d be a perfect fit for them. However, it’s doubtful that they’d use a high first round pick on a guard, especially when they’ve had so much success drafting lineman in the late rounds.
The pick will actually be…….Jonathan Stewart
Hmmmmm, a phrase about how many ways there are to skin a cat comes to mind. Yes the Broncos’ offensive line is getting old and may not be as dominant as they used to be. And yes that may have an adverse affect on the running game. And yes the Broncos need to do something in this draft to upgrade the running game to meet the lofty standards they’ve consistently set for themselves. But NO, reaching for an offensive lineman is not the only way to do it. Drafting the electrifying Jonathan Stewart would do just fine. Think about it. Since Clinton Portis left the Broncos have always had A+ offensive lines, blocking for B- backs, which was enough to make their running game a B+. If you no longer have that A+ line, you’d better have an A+ back. Enter Jonathan Stewart. The Travis Henry experiment has been, shall we say interesting, but even notwithstanding his paternity issues Henry is getting old. And nothing against Selvin Young who did a nice job last year, but he is simply not going to strike fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators the way Stewart will. Stewart is the classic Bronco one-cut back. In the Broncos scheme it is imperative that the running back do two things simultaneously. First, he must attack the hole where the play is called. Second, he must sense, not see but sense, the cutback lane. Stewart is a perfect one-cut back, because he has the “vision” to feel cutback lanes, but at 230 pounds he has the strength to square his shoulder pads and power through the hole should a lane not present itself. Stewart actually reminds me quite a bit of Terrell Davis, only with breakaway speed. This may not be a glaring need pick for the Broncos, but Jonathan Stewart would be a consistent 1600 yard back for Denver.
13. Carolina Panthers
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Jeff Otah
The Panthers do have some holes on the offensive line, but drafting a stud tackle before getting the necessary skill players would be putting the cart before the horse so to speak. This assessment rings especially true when one considers the fact that the Panthers already have a capable left tackle in Jordan Gross, and they drafted a future starting center last year in Ryan Kalil. Otah is a very solid offensive line prospect, but he is still extremely raw and there are questions about whether he has the feet to play left tackle in the pros. More of a mauler than a technician, Otah is actually very similar to Gross. To think that the Panthers are going to draft another tackle who may or may not be able to play on the left side (Gross has always been a stud RT and only an adequate LT) doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. If Jake Long or Ryan Clady, or some other sure fire stud left tackle were available then the Panthers would be smart to jump. But they have enough holes that they shouldn’t reach for a tackle project this early in round 1.
The pick will actually be…….Brian Brohm
I think I’ve been a bit unfair to Brian Brohm recently. While I am not enamored with his physical tools, I do think he has a chance to be a very solid NFL quarterback if he is drafted into the right system. There is a lot to like about Brohm. He is accurate, intelligent, throws well on the move, and has a great football pedigree. But there is also a lot to dislike. He is injury prone, he played in a QB friendly college system, and he has an alarming lack of pure arm strength. In reality I believe Brohm projects as a rich man’s Chad Pennington, who, lest we forget, was a pro bowl caliber QB for several years. All that said, I simply do not think the Panthers can afford to pass on him in this spot. Jake Delhomme has been playing on borrowed time for almost 2 years now and is no longer an adequate NFL passer. He got lucky one year and led his team to the Super Bowl, and for some reason that lightning-in-a-bottle run convinced the Panthers to overlook all his obvious shortcomings for the next 4 seasons. Moreover, the David Carr experiment has been a complete disaster, and while Matt Moore may have shown the ability to be a backup I seriously doubt the Panthers want to hitch their franchise to him for the next decade. No, Brian Brohm is a nice, safe pick. He may never be Joe Montana, but he probably won’t be Heath Shuler either. Sure Carolina could pass on Brohm and roll the dice with Andre Woodson or Chad Henne in round 2, but this is a franchise that has to realize they’ve always come up a bit short in the QB department. Drafting a second tier prospect and crossing your fingers isn’t the way to reverse that trend.
14. Chicago Bears
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Rashard Mendenhall
If everyone doesn’t think it will be Mendenhall then they definitely think it will be some other skill position player on offense, right? RIGHT? Well, not exactly. The Bears are a team in absolute disarray. Their once vaunted defense has been decimated by injuries and defections, and you can count the number of NFL caliber offensive players on one hand. Cedric Benson has been an absolute bust, with Muhammad and possibly Berrian gone the receiving corpse lacks any type of threat, the offensive line is in shambles, and the quarterback situation is still manned by the Grossman/Orton two headed monster. In short, the Bears are in big trouble no matter which way they go because they can only plug one hole with this pick. It seems clear that the fan base would be placated most by a franchise QB, but while this class has depth, the only two 1st round caliber signal callers are probably going to be off the board by the 14th pick. That leaves the RB position to draw the ire of the fans. With Cedric Benson giving the Bears absolutely nothing in three seasons, conventional wisdom says its time to cut bait. Rashard Mendenhall is a local kid (having played at Illinois), who would instantly upgrade the running game with his toughness and game breaking ability. Still, for a team that has had an offense as bad as the Bears have, for as long as the Bears have, it seems unlikely that they will give up on a former top 5 pick just like that. I think we can all agree that Mendenhall is, right now, a better back than Benson, but to spend another first round pick on a RB when the team needs a talent upgrade at so many other positions would be a very tough pill for the Bears front office to swallow.
The pick will actually be…….Jeff Otah
I can almost hear the boos raining down already. Actually, this is the pick the Bears should make. It is clear to everyone that the Bears are currently going in the wrong direction. Their decline from the Super Bowl should continue for at least another couple years, meaning they have plenty of time (not to mention some more high draft picks) to retool and rebuild. The best way to start that process, though, is to solidify the lines of scrimmage. Now, the Bears are actually OK along the defensive line with Tommie Harris, Mark Anderson and Co. However, they need some serious help along the offensive front. Otah, the massive tackle from Pitt, may be just what the doctor ordered. Otah is incredibly raw, but a gifted football player. He is big, tough, mean, and derives great pleasure from knocking heads with defensive players. That said, he needs a lot of work as a pass protector so he’ll probably have to start his career as a right tackle. Previously I compared him to Jordan Gross which I don’t think is so far off. However, Otah is more physically imposing than Gross and has the potential to develop into a top flight left tackle (something Gross never did). Of course, that is only potential right now. At this point in the draft Otah offers the Bears the best value because, although it may take a year or two, he has the ability to develop into an all-pro left tackle.
15. Detroit Lions
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Leodis McKelvin
The pick will actually be…….Leodis McKelvin
Another pretty easy call. The Lions simply have to (HAVE TO!) take the best available defensive back in this spot. In an era where the passing game is having such a renaissance that slot receivers (a.k.a. third receivers) are getting multimillion dollar contracts, teams must stock their defensive backfield with a number of guys who can cover. It’s just not enough to have two anymore. Of course that doesn’t really matter for the Lions since they don’t have anyone who can cover. McKelvin, as I’ve stated, is somewhat of a project. However, his physical tools are undeniable. I think the Lions would rather have the more polished Aqib Talib in this spot, but it seems unlikely he will fall this far. Still, McKelvin is not a bad consolation prize. The Lions need to understand that they are still a few years away from competing, so they will have time to let McKelvin develop (he won’t be an immediate impact player). Plus, Lions’ coach Rod Marinelli is from the Tampa 2 school of defense, which prefers corners who are tough and physical. McKelvin fits both descriptions and should immediately upgrade the talent level in the Lions’ defensive backfield. The only other guy I could see the Lions jumping at in this spot is Miami’s Kenny Phillips. He probably can’t play corner in the NFL, but he is the classic impact Miami safety who would be more an immediate player than McKelvin, but doesn’t have the same long term potential. |
| posted by Walter @ 3:40 PM |
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| Foresight is always 20-20? (Part II) |
| Thursday, February 21, 2008 |
6. New York Jets
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Vernon Gholston
With Eric Mangini attempting to build NE Patriots Redux in New York, the sentiment is out there, and fairly so, that the Jets will snatch up this versatile Ohio State product to plug into the Belichickian trademark 3-4 defense they are building. While it is true that Gholston, a true LB-DE hybrid in the mold of former Patriot Willie McGinest, possesses the rare combination of skill and size to pose matchup problems in pass protection, the one thing the Jets defense actually has is some decent 3-4 edge rushers in Bryan Thomas and Shaun Ellis. If the Jets are serious about switching to the 3-4 they need to find the correct personnel to play the position they don’t already have filled. Truth be told, despite Gholston’s eye-popping athleticism, what the Jets really need is a true thumping inside linebacker to team with David Harris, or an actual space eating nose tackle (which would free up DeWayne Robertson to move outside). With no Pat Willis or Vince Wilfork type prospects in this draft, the Jets are SOL.
The pick will actually be…….Darren McFadden
So the Jets can’t snag a top notch prospect to plug into their front seven. With the “Swiss Army” running back as the consolation prize, something tells me the Jets faithful won’t be too distraught. Actually, despite the appearance as a class value pick, drafting McFadden could be viewed as a need pick as well. While the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets, may have more publicized needs (LB, WR, NT), there is simply no reason running back shouldn’t be near the top of that list. The Thomas Jones experiment failed miserably (to put it nicely), and while Leon Washington has proven to be a very nice player, he simply is not a featured back. Enter McFadden. By drafting this superstar in the making, in one fell swoop the Jets will transform their offense, simultaneously adding big play ability and a guy to take pressure off of the young Kellen Clemens. With Curtis Martin already retired, and Lavareneous Coles nearing the end of his career, the Jets desperately need an offensive superstar to lead them into the next phase in their franchise. Something tells me D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold may not get the job done.
7. New England Patriots
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Mike Jenkins
On paper it makes sense. The Pats are all but assured to lose Asante Samuel to free agency, why not replace him with this stud South Florida product? Well, the simple reason is that’s just not how the Patriots operate. Draftniks and pundits alike have been predicting that the Patriots would draft a first round cornerback since the days of Ty Law, yet the closest they’ve come was Brandon Merriweather last year (who I still project as a starting free safety, NOT a corner). In fact, if you look at Belichick and Pioli’s drafting history, they absolutely love drafting corners in the middle to late rounds. Since 2001 the Pats have drafted a total of 7 cornerbacks in rounds 3-7, and NONE in round 1. Though some of these picks were better (Ellis Hobbs – 3rd round, Asante Samuel – 4th round, Randall Gay - undrafted) than others (Christian Morton – 7th round, Brock Williams – 3rd round), the Pats have had enough success that it seems unlikely that they’ll break away from their strategy now.
The pick will actually be…….Vernon Gholston
Speaking of drafting trends, one position that Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli LOVE to address in round 1 is the defensive line. If you play defense with your hand on the ground, you’ve got a great chance to end up as a first round pick of the New England Patriots. Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, all three are pro-bowl caliber players, and all three were first round draft picks of Belichick and Pioli. If Gholston falls to seven you may be able to add his name to the list as well. Though not a “true” defensive lineman like Seymour, Warren, or Wilfork, Gholston isn’t a “true” linebacker either (of which Belichick and Pioli avoid like the plague in round one). As I’ve said many times, Gholston reminds me a lot of a young Willie McGinest. He has an explosive first step as a pass rusher, but also has the bulk to stand up against the run. McGinest struggled for years in New England as a full time OLB, and then a full time DE. It wasn’t until Belichick decided to use him in the “elephant” position in the 3-4 that McGinest consistently played at a high level. Gholston would be able to step right into the Patriots defense as a situational player, and learn the nuances of the position from the likes of Adalius Thomas and Mike Vrabel. Moreover, when the Pats decide to go to the 4-3 (which they often do in passing situations), they could put the following 6 players on the field to get after the passer (4 DL, 2 OLB): Seymour, Warren, Gholston, Jarvis Green, Mike Vrabel, and Adalius Thomas. Now that is scary.
8. Baltimore Ravens
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Brian Brohm
On paper Brohm makes sense as he would give the Ravens their best quarterback prospect since ….well, ever. That said, there are two reasons I don’t see them grabbing the popular Louisville product. First, I think the Ravens’ front office still believes in the Steve McNair/Kyle Boller/Troy Smith trio. Now, if you’ll just stop laughing for a moment I’ll explain why I don’t think their faith is entirely misplaced. McNair is a has-been, no doubt about that. And Boller is a never-was, also no doubt there. BUT, and it’s a big but, neither McNair nor Boller are completely useless. Boller has performed capably in the backup role, and McNair is still a savvy veteran, and a classy guy capable of tutoring his eventual replacement. Which brings us to Smith. While he didn’t exactly light the world on fire as a rookie, the Ohio State product did show some flashes in the final games of the season. I’ve long touted the former Heisman winner as a future pro-bowler in the mold of Jeff Garcia, and I simply cannot believe the Ravens would give up on him so quickly. As a collegian Smith showed the mobility, leadership, and, most importantly, the accuracy to succeed in the NFL. The Ravens aren’t going anywhere in 2008, why not give him another year to learn under McNair? The second reason the Ravens won’t draft Brohm is that they have to be getting a little gun shy with QB’s. Their development of quarterbacks has been, let’s say spotty at best. We all know that Kyle Boller was an unmitigated disaster, but he’s not the only woeful quarterback tale the Ravens can tell. Before Boller there was Chris Redman (also of Louisville) who was going to be their QB of the future. Then it was the big free agent signee Elvis Grbac. Then, in 2005, the Ravens drafted little known Derek Anderson in the 6th round, subsequently gave him away, then watched him become a pro-bowler at 25. Basically, it seems that every decision this regime has made on a QB has been wrong. At some point, they’ve got to stop wasting their time.
The pick will actually be…….Mike Jenkins
A defensive pick for the Ravens? Sounds crazy I know, but bear with me. For as long as we can all remember, the Ravens have been about great defense and futile offense. While this may still be true to some degree as far as statistics go, the talent level is actually evening out between the two sides of the ball. In short, while the offense has been getting younger these past 5 years (though not necessarily any better), the defense has been getting OLD! If you look at the 2007 Ravens and choose their top players to build around for the future, the list would probably include at least 5 offensive players (Willis McGahee, Jason Brown, Ben Grubbs, Mark Clayton, and Yamon Figures) and possibly as few as 3 defensive ones (Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed). While the overall talent level of the time needs to rise dramatically, one could actually argue that the offense is slightly ahead of the defense in terms of rebuilding. Ray Lewis isn’t going to be around forever, and Chris McCalister has already lost more than a step. Adding Mike Jenkins would go a long way towards solidifying the secondary for years to come, as he is a tough, physical corner that is always looking to intimidate. Jenkins’ game is actually very similar to that of McAlister when he was in his prime. Learning under him for a year or two would do wonders for the South Florida product.
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Sedrick Ellis
The pick will actually be…….Sedrick Ellis
This is one is actually so easy that even the masses can get it right. Ellis’ huge performance at the Senior Bowl notwithstanding, I simply don’t see him surpassing Glen Dorsey as the top defensive tackle available in this draft. Ellis is a bit more stout than Dorsey, but probably doesn’t have the same game changing pass rush ability as the LSU star. Moreover, at just under 6’2’’ Ellis doesn’t really have the size to be a top 5 pick, something Cincinnati is grateful for picking at nine. The Bengal defense has been a sore spot for years, and despite numerous picks spent on the unit, it hasn’t gotten a whole lot better. With Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph in tow, the talent is there in the secondary and Ellis’ presence on the line should free up the ends and linebackers to get more pressure on the passer. While Ellis may not ever be a game changing DT in the mold of John Randle or Bryant Young, he should be a stout, consistent performer for many years. This is both a need pick and a safe pick for a Bengals team that desperately needs some beef in the middle of its defense.
10. New Orleans Saints
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Leodis McKelvin
People expect the Saints to go defense with this pick, and for good reason. The defense has been very porous, especially in the back 7 against the pass. McKelvin would help, too. He is an incredible physical specimen, but also a bit of a project coming out of Troy. For everyone who thinks McKelvin could come in and have an impact right away like DeMarcus Ware, I refer you to Osi Umenyiora, who developed into an outstanding player only after several years developing. The bottom line is that this team was in the NFC title game 2 seasons ago, and they aren’t that far from returning. But to get there they need NFL ready prospects now, and McKelvin simply may not be that player. If Mike Jenkins fell to this spot, or the Saints fell in love with Aqib Talib, it might be a different story. But for a team as close as the Saints, I simply can’t see them using this pick on any sort of “project” player.
The pick will actually be…….Keith Rivers
Like the Ravens and their QB search, doesn’t it always seem like the Saints are looking for a linebacker? I thought it was just me, but then I took a look at their draft history. Since 2002 the Saints have chosen 5 linebackers in the first day of the draft: Sedrick Hodge, James Allen, Cie Grant, Courtney Watson, and Alfred Fincher. Notice anything? Yup, they all stink. Also like the Ravens, this Saints administration simply cannot seem to get it right. However, for all their troubles the Saints have not invested a first round pick in a linebacker. Enter Keith Rivers. Rivers is a physical specimen, born for the NFL game. He is big and fast, and you simply cannot overlook that he came from the NFL factory that is USC. Rivers is the type of immediate impact player the Saints need to get back to the playoffs, and unlike McKelvin he will help in the both the run and pass defense. While not much of a pass rusher, Rivers is actually very underrated in coverage making him a true 3 down linebacker, and an impact player immediately. |
| posted by Walter @ 4:45 PM |
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| Foresight is always 20-20? (Part I) |
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With the draft right around the corner here is our first stab at a mock. As we know the draft can be an unpredictable affair. Nobody ever gets it all right in a mock. Still, we here at the 323 are intent on raising the bar. Therefore, not only are we going to tell you who each team WILL pick, but we'll tell you why they AREN'T going to pick the player most people think they will.
Of course that makes things much longer so we'll have to do this 5 picks at a time all the way through the top 15.
1. Miami Dolphins
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Glen Dorsey
The reason this pick won't be Glen Dorsey is quite simple. He's a defensive tackle! In the history of football there have been exactly two DT's drafted first overall (Russell Maryland and Dan Wilkinson), and neither's arrival exactly lit the NFL on fire. Now Dorsey might be the second coming of Warren Sapp as a 3-technique pass rusher, but Dorsey has major concerns about his durability, and strength holding up against the run inside. Not to mention, last time I checked the 3-4 defense, which we know new Dolphins boss Bill Parcells favors, there was no 3-technique tackle.
The pick will actually be…….Matt Ryan
In past years you may have been able to do better than Matt Ryan, but you could do a whole lot worse. In a world of bust potential first round passers, Ryan is the anomaly: a polished passer who has top notch intangibles to equal his physical ability. Think about it. Every college passer that gets invited to the combine can throw the football. What separates an NFL QB is the ability to know where to throw that football under all circumstances. Like a great golfer, an NFL QB has to be able to repeat his motion no matter what the circumstances. When the Dolphins watch Matty Ice throw a 10 yard out or a deep post on the turf of the RCA Dome during the combine, they can rest assured knowing they'll get that same performance in the 4th quarter of a close game. Ryan Leaf…..well, he sure did look great at the combine didn't he?
2. St. Louis Rams
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Chris Long
Let's be clear on one thing, Chris Long is worthy of the number 2 overall pick. The reason he won't be drafted here, however, is because he is just way too similar to Adam Carriker, the Rams' first round pick from a year ago. Long and Carriker are similar in size and stature, and they both play a game eerily similar to former Ram standout Grant Wistrom. And while very team in the NFL would love to have a pair of Grant Wistrom's anchoring their defensive front seven, I simply do not believe a team with as many holes as the Rams can afford to invest two consecutive early first round picks in defensive ends that, while solid two way players, will never be dynamic 15 sack performers.
The pick will actually be…….Jake Long
Really, the reason the Rams can get away with not picking Chris Long, is because Jake Long is available (you know what they say, two Long's don't make a right…..thank you, thank you, I'll be here all week). The city of St. Louis knows how important a dominant left tackle can be after watching Orlando Pace dominate for the past decade or so. With Pace not far from the Rams' fans' collective memories, the front office realizes that they can get away with picking Long ahead of some of the other, sexier names and still not disenfranchise the ticketholders. Moreover, the Rams shelled out huge money extending Marc Bulger's contract, then watched him go out in 2007 and nearly get killed on every drop back When you are paying your QB that type of money, you'd better have someone watching his back.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Matt Ryan
Well it's easy to say the pick won't be Ryan because he'll be long gone by the time the Falcons are on the clock. That said, if he is available the Falcons will bite quicker than [insert Mike Vick joke here……thank you, thank you, try the veal.] Truth be told, though, the Falcons are a lot further away than people may think. The talent drain from Atlanta over the past few years has been tremendous. In addition to Vick the Falcons have lost defensive stalwarts Rod Coleman and Pat Kearney, as well as pro bowl TE Alge Crumpler. Bottom line, things are going to get a lot worse in Atlanta before they get better. The Falcons have plenty of time to draft their franchise QB in Rd. 2 or 3 and let them develop. This team is old (see Brooking, Keith and Dunn, Warrick), and they are going to be terrible for a while. Taking a chance on a non-first round QB is not the worst idea for this franchise.
The pick will actually be…….Glen Dorsey
After everything that has happened to the Falcons, Glen Dorsey would be just what the doctor ordered. As I said, the talent drain in Atlanta has been tremendous, especially on the defensive side of the football, and it is only going to get worse. Keith Brooking is getting old, and he won't be around much longer. Jamaal Anderson, last year's first round pick, has talent but played uninspired football in 2007. Dorsey is the type of dynamic playmaker who will not only be a perennial pro bowler and leader for the Falcons defense, but will command double teams and make more room for Anderson to work. Perhaps more important than anything Dorsey will do on the field, though, is the fact that he will be a good citizen off of it. Arthur Blank is a nice man who is trying to do right by his fan base. He's been burned twice recently by Vick and Bobby Petrino. Dorsey is the type of high class individual this team desperately needs to build around for the future.
4. Oakland Raiders
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Darren McFadden
I'm still not quite clear on this one, so let me see if I've got this straight. Several years ago the Raiders draft promising rookie Justin Fargas out of USC in the 2nd round. Injuries keep him from ever putting together a consistent season, much to the chagrin and frustration of Raider Nation which always believes he is capable of far more. In 2007, finally healthy and all but forgotten behind free agents Dominic Rhodes and Lamont Jordan, Fargas breaks out and seizes the starting RB gig with a 1,000 yard season. Then, immediately following the season the team gives him a contract extension, only to pay big money to his replacement that they take 4th overall? Yeah, it don't make sense to me either. As much as Al Davis loves making a splash in the media, there is simply no way he can defend taking McFadden, and shelling out the money necessary to do so…..especially after paying Jamarcus Russell big money as the top pick last year. McFadden may be the top talent in the draft, and an absolute stud in the making, but face it Raider Nation, it just ain't gonna happen.
The pick will actually be…….Chris Long
Remember when I said that Al Davis loves to make a splash in the media……well what could possibly be a bigger splash than selecting the son of one of the all-time great Raiders? Not only is Long a steal a four, but watching him suit up in the Black and Silver will conjure up memories of Papa Howie and the Raider glory days. The Raider offense is a work in progress, no doubt, but they actually have some skill position pieces in place (Russell, Fargas, Zach Miller) and there is a ton of unrequited talent on that O-Line (don't forget former #2 overall pick Robert Gallery who played MUCH better in the 2nd half of last season). The defense, however, is another story. Already one of the toughest, youngest, and most underrated units in the league, the Raider defense would be downright scary with the addition of Long. The Raider defense could grow into something truly special, which would take a lot of pressure of Jamarcus Russell and let him grow at his own pace. By 2010 this would be one of the best team in the league.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Everyone thinks the pick will be……..Jake Long
No need to mince words here, if Jake Long were available I think the Chiefs would take about 10 seconds to make this pick. But the chances of him dropping to five are very unlikely, especially with all four teams drafting ahead of them in need of a left tackle. Of course, since those teams are drafting 1-4 they obviously have other needs, but its pure wishful thinking to believe not one of them would snap up the best left tackle prospect on the board. What has happened to KC is really amazing, and serves as a valuable lesson for the rest of the league. Two seasons ago everyone knew that Willie Roaf and Wil Shields wouldn't be around forever, but for some reason the Chiefs buried their heads in the sand rather than planning for the future. I guess you could say that their management lost sight of the forest through the trees, but I just say they were downright stupid.
The pick will actually be…….Ryan Clady
Is Clady the 5th best player in the draft? No freakin way. But then again neither was Levi Brown last year. And therein lies the most recent trend in NFL drafts. Teams reaching, and I mean reaching, in the first round to grab potential left tackles. Consider the following list of tackles all drafted in the first round, and all drafted higher than they graded out at: Levi Brown (5), Joe Staley (28), Jamaal Brown (13), Alex Barron (19), George Foster (20), Kwame Harris (26). And that is just in the last 5 years. Well add Clady to the list. Only a Junior, Clady actually has a ton of potential. He has great size and has outstanding feet (some, not me, say better than Long). Still, it will be a huge reach at #5 for the Chiefs, but one they might just be willing to make a la the Cardinals last year. |
| posted by Walter @ 10:02 AM |
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| Recruiting Wars |
| Friday, February 08, 2008 |
Sorry we disappeared there for awhile. I'd like to say that we've been working on some pretty big things (actually, we have, but it's still a work in progress). Mostly, we've just been reeling from end of the season, and then the football game that shall not be named.
But it's important to take a moment and comment on the recruiting wars that are wrapping up. Everyone is projecting winners and losers, and giving out rankings and all that. But it's essentially useless. As hard as it is to project college performance to the pros, projecting high school to college is even more difficult.
Add to that the fact that most of these kids aren't even finished growing, and that position coaches and off-field workouts will have more of an influence over their success than their most recent 40 times, and the whole thing is generally insane. Here's what you need to know:
LSU, USC, Florida, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas and Oklahoma all recruited enough talent to be nationally relevant for years to come. Just as they do every year. Elite programs are elite because they reload. The top tier schools aren't going anywhere.
Florida State and Miami recruited great players, as always. This is nothing new, what matters is how well they develop, or fail to.
It doesn't matter if Clemson, or someone else had an amazing recruiting class. What matters is how they play. When Al Groh first came to Virginia, they had classes ranked in the top ten for a number of years. Those teams underachieved. Of all the super-recruits that we had, only Chris Long and Heath Miller were really worth it. Others may be in the NFL, but they didn't leave lasting impacts on the college level.
So let's wait to get excited about Clemson, or whoever. It simply doesn't matter. I recall something about a great coach being able to take yours'n and beat his'n and his'n and beat yours'n.
The #1 draft pick three years from now won't be any of the names being tossed around by everybody right now. It'll be the kid that works the hardest, and makes his team better.
The whole recruiting thing is insane to begin with, and the attention paid is getting more ridiculous by the year. I can't wait to simply recycle this column for signing day next year. |
| posted by Frazier @ 6:56 PM |
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| The White Flag |
| Thursday, January 24, 2008 |
So, my best efforts notwithstanding, the NFL network has thwarted my plans for Senior Bowl week. Though they claim to be televising the practices for the North and South squads, in reality the network is merely using the practice field as its own “on site” set. Instead of actually showing the players practicing, viewers are treated to an hour and a half of network talking heads, in season game clips, and glimpses of the ongoing practice in the background. Now don’t get me wrong, I love listening to Mike Mayock (who is the new Mel Kiper!), and the fact that he is a Boston College grad has nothing to do with that (well maybe a little). But the fact remains unless you are physically in Mobile, you simply cannot see enough to grade out the players. I guess we’ll have to wait until the combine in Indianapolis!
But fear not, new features are coming ASAP…..just don’t expect me to apologize to the NFL Network. |
| posted by Walter @ 9:08 AM |
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